Sunday 2 July 2023

My Investment Portfolio - SG (End Jun 2023)


Did not make any transactions for my portfolio as I allotted all the transactions (MIT and T-bills) to my wife's portfolio. 

I am in a dilemma on whether to continue to deploy my warchest as US Fed seems to be in a catch 22 situation. Now it seems additional rate hikes are likely and the next hike should be on 26 Jul 2023. Because if they continue to pause, the next opportunity will only come 2 months later on 20 Sep 23. The questions we need to know next are i) how many more hikes will there be and ii) when will the first hike cut be. 

No one really has the answer as the situation is so dynamic. It depends on so many factors such as inflation, jobs, jobless and wage growth numbers. Also, whether the system breaks and a recession comes. 

I am tempted to add on to DBS and OCBC since there is at least one more hike and that the next rate cut is going to come much later, probably in 2024. What is holding me back is that (i) NIM has likely peaked and (ii) probability of prices dropping is higher than it going higher or being maintained. But banks should continue to do well since interest rate will remain high for sometime. But (another but..), our local bank stocks typically peak 6 months before US Fed bank's interest rate's peak and all it takes is for a system to break and a recession is here. When that happens, bank stock prices drop. 

As for Reits, the considerations are similar. It all depends on US Fed. After all, risk free interest rates for the likes of T-bills is now at 3.89%, compared to Reits yield of around 4.5 to 6%. The risk of DPU dropping will remain as long as interest rates are increased or remain high. I have added quite a fair bit of Reits over the past 2 years in anticipation of rates being cut in 2024 or 2025. Reits now account for over 50% of my portfolio. In fact, among my top 5 holdings, 3 of them are reits. With my long term view (and trigger happy fingers), I will likely find something to purchase again, whether reits, bank stocks or more T-bills.

I should not be adding anymore SSB for now unless the new SSB's 10 years effective interest is above 3%. This is because, all my current SSBs' 10 years effective interest are 3% or more.

Over the second half of Jun, I noticed my overall portfolio value dipping slightly into the red (i.e. unrealised loss) and then recovering being positive again. When my portfolio value turns red, it is normally a signal for me to buy more. I monitor this via Stockcafe. I seldom share about this stock tracking management platform. It has been a lifesaver for me in helping me track my whole family's portfolio. I was surprised to note that I have actually been using it for more than 7 years! 

From stockcafe (30 Jun)

Dividends received* during the month: $1,986.40 (Ascendas Reit, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust, ST Engineering)

Total dividends received in 2023: $9,589.43

Average dividends per month^: $799.12

Total Portfolio Market Value: $344,939.73

* Dividends are recognised after payment date. Average dividends per month is calculated by dividing the dividends received by 12 months regardless of the month. 
Portfolio excludes Singapore Savings Bonds, T-bills and Foreign Stocks
Divided by 12 months regardless of month of the year.